USDE (StablecoinX)
A shell holding 3.03 billion Ethena governance tokens, wrapped in a Nasdaq listing, with a small infrastructure business bolted on. The tokens are worth roughly twice the company. Lock-ups are permanently waived effective Oct 5, 2026; any sale still needs Foundation prior written consent.
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Balance sheet
What you buy against what it holds
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Thesis
StablecoinX is a Nasdaq listing wrapped around 3.03bn ENA, 20% of every ENA that will ever exist. The tokens are worth about ; the equity costs about $211m. The disputed variable is now consent, overhang, and the monetisation path, not a hard lock-up. Per the Sep 17 8-K Waiver Letter, effective Oct 5, 2026 all lock-up/vesting/unlocking on Subject ENA (including the PIPE 48-month lock-up) is permanently waived; ENA stays treasury. Any sale or transfer still needs Ethena Foundation prior written consent under Collaboration Agreement §4.2(b) (not unreasonably withheld), and Funding Sales still run through the notice framework.
Bull case: $28
USDe supply climbs from $4.07bn past the $7.5bn switch that arms Ethena's revenue-funded buybacks, ENA recovers to $0.30, and the discount narrows to the ~0.75× that other treasury companies trade at. Rests on one assumption: USDe supply grows ~84% and Foundation consent plus the Funding-Sale framework clear a credible monetisation path after the Oct 5 calendar waiver of lock-ups.
Bear case: $4.25
USDe keeps shrinking, buybacks never arm, ENA returns to $0.08, and the discount stays at today's . Rests on one assumption: even after the Oct 5 lock-up waiver, Foundation consent and the 20%-of-supply overhang keep the discount structural, not temporary.
Prices are illustrative outputs of the model above, not targets. No recommendation is made or implied.
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This page is research, not advice, and makes no recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Check every number against the filings before acting. Compiled 6 Oct 2026.
Sources: StablecoinX Form 8-K of 25 Jun 2026 (super 8-K, Form 10 information); Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 of 14 Aug 2026 (Q2 FY26 results and financial statements); Form S-1 with exhibit 5.1 and the filing-fee table of 28 to 31 Aug 2026; the press release of 25 Jun 2026. Market data: StockAnalysis.com (3 Sep 2026), CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Coinbase, Bitget and MetaMask (3 and 4 Sep 2026). Ethena governance: the Ethena Foundation's announcement of 27 Aug 2026 and coverage of the Snapshot vote. Peer multiples: B. Riley commentary via CoinDesk (Nov 2025) and DLNews (Oct 2025). Nasdaq Capital Market, listed 26 Jun 2026. Memo prices from 3 and 4 Sep 2026, filings through Q2 FY26. All figures in USD.
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