EDITORS NOTE:

For those who haven’t seen - I recently launched subscriptions on X. Thanks to all who have supported me thus far! Substack will still remain free when I post longer form thoughts, that won’t change. But with my trading style, and how active I am, I realised it would make a lot more sense to be on X. Substack is good for long-form, higher time-frame thesis, one article a week kind of style. But it’s bad for my trading style, especially when I want to “ape first, research later”. As for the reason why gate it:

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1. Lots of people look down on X subscriptions because scammers use it - it has a bad rep. But to me, subs are a way to filter conversations, and a place for me to comfortably share my market views. I value authenticity, and want to always be authentic especially to my paid audience.

2. As I grew bigger, it became harder for me to publicly share positions - I still do it, but knowing I’ll be scrutinized for every thing is tiring. Paying filters for people who actually want to be here - you also get a community of like-minded investors + you can ask me questions directly, because there’s fewer people - normally I have notifications turned off because there’s too much spam

3. At its core, paid subs are simply a new way to monetize alpha. If you have an edge in financial markets, you either deploy the capital yourself or get paid for providing that edge - hedge funds have always done this through performance fees. If your analyst is good, he gets a cut of the pie. Social media now enables the same model at a much smaller, global scale: I get paid to share ideas. There will inevitably be people monetizing without any real alpha, just as there are bad fund managers, but that doesn’t invalidate the model itself. The fundamental idea is incentive alignment: if someone consistently provides valuable alpha, they should have a way to capture some of the value they create.

4. Lastly, I always make sure to charge on the lower end while delivering more than expected. I chose an amount that is less than the market - (Most Substack influencers charge $60 - $100/m, Kevin Xu does $250/m, Ansem does $200/m (and has 400 subscribers, netting him $100k/m lol.)

Anyways, that’s all. Subscribe Here:

Most of what I trade day-to-day never makes it onto Substack - these trades I don't have time to write up are usually the ones that matter most.

So I launched subscriptions to fix that - granular trades as they happen

Substack will stay free!

Kyle · @zeroxkyle · 2026-08-04 · View on X

Au (Gold)

Caveat: This piece was posted on Aug 9th to my subscribers. Information like prices are probably out of date. H/T Cptlightyear and Riff for putting it on the radar. They are chads. And basedpotato for the graphic and some of the points below.

I wanted to use the weekend to do some due diligence into the Gold Thesis. Gold has been bottoming out for a few months, and then exploded upwards. This piece is just a collection of what I have found re: Gold.

Qualitative Arguments

there are genuinely people who think gold is over owned and that the speculative excess from last year won’t continue. They are silly.

- Precious metal cycles are getting shorter and more compressed, also they’re occurring more often. Gold no longer moves every ten years.

basedpotato · @bas3dp0tat6 · 2026-08-06 · View on X

• Cycyles are getting more compressed, 2000 - 2011: 10 years; 2011 - 2020: 9 years; 2020 - 2022: 2 years

• The original bull case gets stronger as time goes by - after the West seized Russia’s reserves - countries have to diversify out of developed market fixed-income securities (especially China). Add to that the problems of US debt, no one wants to be a buyer of a country that has the largest debt in the world - everyone is looking for alternatives. This is a very long-dated, broad macro bull case

• That, combined with the Trump Grift era - the Federal Reserve is slowly getting compromised. There is volatility suppression for now - Shrub’s article really aptly puts it: Passive flows combined with Claude “Hey what should I invest in” topped off with policy makers manipulating price (Bessent pushing paper oil price down) -> Gold is a long term flight to safety

• But why now? Gold topped in Feb 2026, at 5.3k; It has since corrected 26% and traders have been trying to find the bottom. Well reasons for the correction are varied, but a combination of China liquidity + Iran war + Central banks stopped buying seemed to be it

• The chart below shows the annual change in net PBoC liquidity injections into China’s money markets, measured daily and smoothed with a 50-day moving average. The important feature is the clear peak on 2 March. From that point, liquidity stopped accelerating and then contracted.

• Daily repos have recently picked up again, but it is not clear. What is clear is that central banks are back to buying after the Q1 lull! (Which coincided with the down move)

• On top of that, these countries (especially China, a large buyer) don’t want speculative fervor in the markets. They want to accumulate as much as possible, at as low of a price as possible. If the bull fervor gets out of hand, they’ll walk away - hence when sentiment turned overwhelmingly bullish, that’s what they did. But over the last few months, this speculation broke - this coincides with the RSI reading (more on that below, in the technical part below)

• Now, these people are offsides. Everyone and their mom is in semis. Remember how in January we kept getting pictures of people queuing up at bullions? As Citrini said - “When people are worried about the future, they buy gold. When they are worried about the present, they sell gold”. People sold gold because of the war - they were worried about the present. Now, I don’t know if people are worried about the future, but they definitely aren’t worried about the present! The queues at the gold store in my country are GONE.

An aphorism from I don’t know who/when: “When people are worried about the future, they buy gold. When people are worried about the present, they sell gold.”

Will be interesting to see if that plays out.

Citrini · @citrini · 2026-03-08 · View on X

• Right now, sentiment on gold has declined. Today, few people care - again, everyone is in semis and momo stocks. I think it’s a good blend - of asymmetry, combined with timing, combined with the fact that people aren’t in it yet. This is the type of fattest trades I love. Today, few people care

• On the macro side - theoretically higher real rates and stronger dollar is supposed to make gold go down. I’m not a macro expert but the idea is higher real rates -> gold pays no interest -> investors prefer bonds; also, dollar stronger -> Gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies

• Despite all of this, Gold did not break below $4,000. Now I traded Gold myself and had many times longing it - unsuccessfully. It really was ranging at the 4,000 price zone - and initially it was bearish. But as time went on, this price zone became the support - evident that this was accumulation.

• Seaonality wise: Early August is when summer lull ends and seasonal strength returns - which is the current break out

• Lastly, courtesy of Macro Tourist: Gold 1-yr 25-delta call skew at lowest since pre-COVID - no one paying for right-tail risk

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Technical Thesis

Many technical triggers got pushed on gold:

• During the bull market of the past few years, the 50-day moving average was a key level that gold would often hold above. It would always test it, then continue the uptrend.

• Jan 26 - large correction from 5500 to 4400; Gold bounced off the 50D. Bull market resumed. Start of Iran War - closed below 50D. Stayed there, and the 50D became resistance.

• Now, it has reclaimed it (Blue line)

• On top of that, the simple downtrend line (black line in the image) is broken

You might think technical analysis is astrology for men, but as PTJ said: “One principle for sure is to get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average”. Guess what gold just did?

• Yup. It’s above the 200D EMA. Now, the last point is RSI - I find RSI on higher time frames (Weekly / Monthly) to be a strong signal - and gold was so close to being oversold for weeks on the weekly! Everytime it reached that point, it seemed to emerge into a new uptrend

• Now, it has rebounded. Amazing setup. You also have it crossing basically every EMA - and the short term EMAs are crossing (bullish indicator) - EMA10 crossover EMA21.

Execution

• One thing to note - Gold printed a trigger on my (20/3) Bollinger Bands (20D EMA, 3s.d.) which is almost always a sell. So I expect some short term pullback, in which I will start accumulating in size. Like I mentioned, Gold can be traded in size because the volatility on the day to day is not that great (doesn’t tend to swing 10% like stocks)

• Anywhere from $4,341 - $4,191 (EMA50 on the daily) probably great to put limit bids.

• Invalidation for this entire trade can probably be at $4,170 when it closes below (basically, the top of the range, hence closing below = it goes back to being range bound)

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